AFL Tips 2027
Round 1 is set, with our tip for all 9 games shown beside 5 public models that have already made their calls.
Tips for Round 1
our win chanceeach public modelCombined Squiggle figure.
Grading begins at the first bounce
Each tip on this site locks at the start of the game and is graded after the siren, game by game, with a tick or cross, margin error and Bits. Our own record begins in Round 1 2027, and we never backdate it.
To understand what a strong season involves, check the results of simple strategies across the 2026 home-and-away schedule of 207 games. The scores came from the Squiggle results feed.
| Strategy in 2026 | Correct | Strike rate |
|---|---|---|
| Always tip the home side | 121 of 207 | 58.5% |
| Tip the higher team on the ladder | 138 of 207 | 66.7% |
| Tip the betting favourite | 151 of 207 | 72.9% |
| Best public model (Drop Kick Data) | 157 of 207 | 75.8% |
Who gave the best tips in 2026?
All 31 sources| # | Source | Tips | Strike rate | Bits | Avg margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drop Kick Data | 163 of 218 | 74.8% | 51.7 | 25.1 pts |
| 2 | Holy Grail Ratings | 163 of 218 | 74.8% | 35.3 | 25.3 pts |
| 3 | Punters | 162 of 218 | 74.3% | 53.6 | 25.0 pts |
| 4 | s10 | 160 of 218 | 73.4% | 54.2 | 24.9 pts |
| 5 | ZaphBot | 159 of 218 | 72.9% | 52.0 | 25.8 pts |
Simulated 2027 ladder
Full predicted ladderBased on the real 2027 fixture, 20,000 simulated seasons spread each club over positions 1 to 18. Darker bars show greater likelihood.
| # | Club | Wins | Finish range | Top 10 | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney | 15.1 | 91% | 14.7% | |
| 2 | Fremantle | 14.7 | 89% | 12.6% | |
| 3 | Geelong | 14.6 | 88% | 15.5% | |
| 4 | Brisbane | 14.4 | 87% | 13.1% | |
| 5 | Hawthorn | 14.0 | 83% | 11.9% | |
| 6 | Adelaide | 13.4 | 79% | 6.7% | |
| 7 | Carlton | 12.7 | 71% | 6.0% | |
| 8 | Melbourne | 12.4 | 68% | 5.7% | |
| 9 | Collingwood | 11.9 | 61% | 3.9% | |
| 10 | Western Bulldogs | 11.8 | 59% | 3.3% |
Think the order needs fixing? Create your own ladder to see how different it is from ours.
Attack versus defence, all 18 clubs
Our ratings chart places every club on two axes and replays 2026 round by round, so you can see the contenders begin to stand apart.
Open the chartQuestions about tipping
Who should I back this week?
Begin with the sheet above. We tip the team that our ratings rate as more likely to win. Below each game, a strip shows if the public models agree. If most dots gather on one side and our mark agrees, the tip is safe. If they spread through the middle, that game decides your round.
At what point does the first bounce lock my tips?
Each game locks at its own first bounce in most work comps. For some comps, the whole round locks at the first game. Melbourne time for the Round 1 2027 first bounce appears at the top of this page. If your comp locks the round, tip before then.
Am I allowed to copy these tips into my work comp?
You're allowed to. Copy tips sends every game to your clipboard in fixture order. It adds a margin to the first game for the tiebreaker, so the result is ready to paste. If your comp still runs on paper, the printable chart covers the whole season.
How do bye rounds work?
Clubs take a mid-season break, so Rounds 11 to 15 have fewer games. Clubs with byes are identified on the sheet, which lists only games being played. This stops comps that score every game from asking you to tip a resting team.